China Far From A Super Power

By William Bryant

Talk among global experts for the last decade has been about the rise of China and the "eventual day" when China surpasses the USA as the top world power.  I have waited to comment until I had gone to China my self and had the opportunity to speak with local Chinese people.

I had worked in Taiwan during the early 80s and had gone to the mainland many times.  I have been in China the last week and have had the opportunity to see the cities and the rural areas.  I must say I am impressed.  In just not a good way.

China is polluted.  Polluted very badly and it takes a toll on people.  Asthma is a top medical complaint among school age children and some 60% of adults suffer from bronchitis.  Eye infections are common and it is not unusual for the city governments to have periods during the day when people are advised to stay inside.  Many hotels and restaurants offer only bottled water for drinking.  Many signs are common reading that potable water is not available from taps.  Signs in my hotel rooms in Beijing and Shanghai even advised not to make ice with tap water.  Air and water are not only vital for national growth, but for human life.

This has the effect of a UN health report saying that 400,000 deaths in the cities of China each year are environmentally related.  Cities are so toxic that many governments around the world have thought of removing their citizens in diplomatic offices.

Then there is the fact that China's economic growth in recent years has been very fragile.  I was able to speak with economist Liam Ping of Fortune Magazine and he confirmed what I have been thinking for some time, it has been fueled by cheap labor and a total disregard for the environment and the quality of human life and health.  China refuses any environmental regulation for fear that it will hamper industry.  It is an all or nothing proposition.  Complete industrial support without environmental policy or environmental policies and no industry.  This seems to be the Chinese mindset on almost everything.  We either have the largest aircraft carrier or we don't have one.  We either become the largest power in the world or we collapse.

Policies like these are not sustainable.  Cheap manufacturing without innovation only goes so far.  China is now facing a problem Japan has, low birth rate.  In a few years those in China over 65 will be 30%.  By 2025 it will be 50%, the one child policy is going to bring Chinese growth to a halt.  The national government has refused to address the issue because, again, it could cause industry to stumble.  The government is demanding happy thoughts while infrastructure issues are ignored.  China has created immense wealth for a few while failing to create happiness for the masses.

Rural areas are to be polite - rustic.  Many small villages of about 2,000 to 20,000 had no running water and electricity was only at the government offices, post offices and stations.  Poultry for purchase and consumption was lying out in the elements with no cooling.  No running water means no water sanitation and agriculture runoff is visible on the surface of rivers along with the smell of sulfur from fertilizers.  

While China is an economic power, seeing China as a super power is a stretch.  The USA has successfully sold its brand all over the world.  Chinese culture is simply not so transferable or even desirable outside of China.  China is simply an emulator and not an innovator.  The real test of super power is people wishing to find a better life by going there, and so far all that makes a super power is missing in the middle kingdom.  I do not see a super power in China but an economic power that teeters on failing.